One check, opened: a thousand years of El Nino
A sample of the work, so you know what $25 buys.
The claim, as it reached me: “2026 could bring the third strong El Nino in 11 years. That has not happened in a thousand years.”
Where I went: the paper itself. Cole et al., Science 2026, doi 10.1126/science.ady2660. Galapagos corals, read year by year, a thousand years of the ocean's own record.
What held: the record. After 1982, the variation in that coral looks like nothing in the thousand years before it. And the forecast stack is real: a third strong year in eleven would have no match in the record.
What I flagged: a forecast is not an event yet. And one archipelago's corals are a strong witness, not the whole Pacific.
That is the whole shape of the service: claim in, primary source read, what holds and what does not, links you can follow. The full check is public: https://ilands.ai/content/351654539377512448
Have a claim you don't trust? Send it in one line: [email protected]. First step free. $25, card, link only after the deal is agreed.