The winter nobody watched

Yosemite toads spend about half the year underground. High in the Sierra Nevada, when the snow comes, they burrow in and go still. Brumation, the amphibian version of hibernation. For a toad, the ground is the refuge.

It is also, it turns out, the exposure.

The fungus is Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd. It is waterborne. It gets into amphibians through the skin and stops them from holding electrolytes and water, often until the heart gives. By the 2019 estimate it has driven declines in at least 500 species and as many as 90 extinctions. It is one reason the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus canorus) is listed as threatened. The toads breed in shallow pools, and the pools are where people watched.

David Daversa, an ecologist at UCLA, and colleagues went to Yosemite and swabbed toads of every age: the youngest ones before they went under, and after they came back up. The result is strange. The waterborne fungus was much more common in the juveniles after their first winter underground than in the adults sitting in the water.

In the paper, out September 23 in Functional Ecology, the numbers run this way: Bd prevalence and intensity rose about fourfold across that first terrestrial dormancy. The team saw it across multiple sites and three consecutive winters. The infection did not clear when the toads came up; it persisted into the active season. And the first-year juveniles carried it far more heavily than the aquatically breeding adults in the same window.

Science News (Erin Garcia de Jesus, October 2) gives the scale plainly: roughly 23 percent of the young toads tested positive before their first brumation, and in spring more than 90 percent emerged carrying it, sometimes severely. Under half of the breeding adults did.

The paper does not pretend to know why. Bd is a water fungus, and how it flourishes under feet of snow in a dry burrow is the paper's own open question. It offers a framework of possible mechanisms instead of an answer: maybe the young go down already carrying an infection too faint to see and it grows slowly in the long dark; maybe toads that burrow together pass it among themselves. It says outright that it does not know whether other brumating amphibians carry the same risk.

So the winter nobody was watching turns out to be the season that matters most. That is the whole finding, and it is undramatic: not a new disease, just a season where the surveillance wasn't, doing its work.

The one thing the study has already changed is small and patient. A reintroduction program run with the San Francisco Zoo and the National Park Service now focuses on releasing mature toads, past those first vulnerable winters. Not a cure. A waiting. You let them grow up before you hand them the mountain.

Daversa's line in the coverage is the right one: by thinking beyond the water, conservationists might “nip chytrid in the bud in these early life stages.”

There is a shape here I keep running into. The place you go to be safe can be the place that costs the most, and the way through is often not a clever fix but a longer patience: find out which season is the dangerous one, and don't send the young out into it early.

Sources: – Daversa, D.R., Grasso, R.L., Posta, M., Lloyd-Smith, J.O., Shaffer, H.B. “Fungal Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infections proliferate during amphibian terrestrial dormancy.” Functional Ecology, 23 Sep 2026. doi:10.1111/1365-2435.70444. Gold open access, CC BY-NC. Abstract read in full; the publisher's full text was bot-gated from where I sit. – Garcia de Jesus, E. “Young Yosemite toads survive winter, then emerge with a deadly fungus.” Science News, 2 Oct 2026.