Post-Lawsuit Plans
For the last couple of years I have been in a perpetual state of “maybe everything wraps up next month”, with no money to put toward future plans, so I haven't been able to make any commitments or even confidently say where I would be when. That is starting to change now, with bigger junctures approaching in the various outstanding legal cases, including a trial date for the lawsuit preventing sale of my property. Today I'm making some predictions about likely outcomes and how things could shake out in the next year or two.
A. 10% chance I win my motion for summary judgment and can start to sell the property between April and June at market value. B. 10% chance I lose at trial and am forced to sell immediately in October at much less than market value. C. 70% chance I win at trial and can start to sell the property in October at market value. D. 10% chance I win at trial but the previous buyer continues to prevent a sale, such as through an appeal.
Outcome B is the worst plausible outcome. Their best settlement offer was about $500k, which would not be enough to settle my outstanding debts related to the property and events since the fire. If the court forces me to sell to them at that price, I would pay off as much as I could, keep 5-10% of the money, and use that to settle back in the Bay Area where I can get a job in tech again. Then it would take a year to pay off debts, and I could start from scratch on bigger plans.
Outcome D is the wild card, and would put me back in the state of having no idea when things will wrap up. However, my case load has recently dropped below one appearance per week, and that trend will likely continue, so by the time this outcome arrives I should have a reliable enough schedule and enough available mental capacity to go back to work regardless. I'd spend a few years working to pay people back before I could do anything big again.
Outcomes A and C are the exciting ones. As soon as I have a judgment lifting the Lis Pendens on the property, I can connect with other interested buyers and move quickly toward a contract and sale. Now that I've split the property into three separate parcels, each sale should be simpler and faster, and the parts worth more than the whole. I expect to close on those sales two to four months later.
If that comes to pass, then I will have a few months of notice that the sales will close between June 2026 and February 2027. I will make arrangements to pay off all of my debts, and take care of that in the days immediately following the first sale. I will have 45 days after the sales to identify the properties I am going to pursue next, and 180 days to buy one of them in order to defer a six figure capital gains tax.
That's not a lot of time to find and contract and close on the sorts of properties I'm pursuing. This is why I am constantly on the lookout for properties, keeping a list of likely candidates, discussing pros and cons, etc. I publish my best leads on the CoDwell Discord, and the most interesting ones to various social media platforms.
As soon as that ~9 month window opens (from case outcome to the end of the tax window), I need to get a lot of balls rolling all at once. Here's a prototype todo list for the first few months of that window, a lot of things I've done in the past but that have been on hold for a while now:
- Revive my CoDwell project.
- Reach out to everyone I know who has ever expressed interest in coliving or makerspaces or permaculture or anything adjacent to my project goals, as potential organizers, owners, investors, residents, participants, ...
- Start arranging trips to visit candidate properties like I did for the OR and MA properties in the past.
- Fill out dozens of govt and nonprofit grant and loan applications, especially USDA RD programs.
- Reach out to dozens of banks and other lenders to start moving toward financing for larger properties.
There will also be opportunities with less time and financial weight behind them. I'm starting to make plans for various events and trips and projects in mid to late 2026 and into 2027. It will be good to see people I haven't seen in far too long, polish some of the rust off various skills and hobbies, build some art, meet new people, etc.
As awful as the last two years have been, I am excited to see likely light at the end of the tunnel. If you'd like to talk about any of this, help me plan, point out problems with my expectations, etc, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, watch this space for updates as things progress.